This is the Innovation cycle. Trends can be more easily understood if they are perceived as a cyclical phenomenon. Every change is born as a reaction to a previous trigger and represents a new emerging need or challenge that can always be translated into different oportunities for different environments to create a solution that fits this new problem. When this solution takes shape, it is implemented according the resources and sorrounding et voilá: Innovation is born. Then again the innovation triggers another reaction, and so on.
Not everything is cool. Also, this process has got nothing to do with any special gift or deliberate inspiration of the observer. That is why I perfer to call it gathering pieces of evidence that take me to a wider perspective and conclusion. In what concerns to Coolhunting and Trendwatching, it is important to have criteria when filtering and screening what is relevant and what is not. I use the variables above to define the strength or depth of the mentality that lies beyond the sample.
Trends are not an exact science, but a study field that can be treated like many social sciences and future studies, so it requires a very accurate analysis that scans all elements that surround Innovation in detail: the Innovation itself, the Innovator who creates it, the Scenario where it takes place, the Drivers that influence it and both the Past and Future.
Confusing? Write and share your ideas with me at firstname.lastname@example.org